With a belly flop last week and a trip to New Orleans looming next Saturday, this is about as close to a must-win as you can get. If the Cowboys don't get a win hear, they'll be forced to win both of their last games to make the playoffs (yes, I'm already counting next week's game as a loss).
Here's the good news:
1) The Chargers are 5-13 in the second game of back to back road games this decade. After a easy win over the Browns last week, maybe the Bolts slip up?
2) Nick Folk has missed more field goals this season than in his first 2 combined, and Dallas is finally making a change in the kicking game. Unfortunately its not at kicker, but at holder. Former holder, punter Mat McBriar, admitted to never feeling comfortable at holder, even going as far as blaming himself for a few of the misses with bad holds. This week Tony Romo volunteered to hold for the first time since... the 2006 Pro Bowl (that's right, after the botched snap against Seattle in the wild card game, he held for the NFC in the Pro Bowl). Hopefully a new holder will help our cause. It also brings in the possibility for some fake FG attempts. Its worth a try.
Now the bad:
1) The Chargers have won 15 straight in December and their last loss was December 31, 2005.
2) The Chargers play a base 3-4 defense and the Cowboys' offense has struggled against the 3-4 this season despite seeing it everyday in practice. You may remember our other games against 3-4's, a loss to Denver, an overtime win over Kansas City, and a loss to Green Bay.
I'll be honest, no reserve jinx, no bullshit, the Cowboys can't win. I wish we could, but we can't. Chargers winners, Cowboys losers.
2) Eagles (8-4) @ Giants (7-5)
I went back forth for days looking at this match-up and trying to figure out which team winning would benefit the Cowboys the most. My final verdict: the Giants.
Look, the Cowboys are gonna have to win at least 2 more games to make it to the playoffs. 2 more wins takes them to 10-6. If the Giants lose this game they fall to 7-6 with 3 very winnable games left (at Redskins, Carolina, and at Vikings when they'll probably be resting starters), also making them 10-6.
The Eagles, on the other hand, would be 9-4 with the win and have the inside track to the NFC East title. If Philly wins the East and we tie with the Giants we're out. Period.
That's why we need the Giants to win so they can go 11-5 and win the East which will give us the chance to grab one of the wild cards.
Do I think the Giants will win?? Of course not, they'll fuck us over just like they did last Sunday. Eagles winners, Giants losers.
3) Broncos (8-4) @ Colts (12-0)
If you don't want to see the Colts go undefeated, this is probably the last realistic shot at a loss. After the Broncos, Indy's remaining schedule is at Jaguars, Jets, at Bills. Not exactly murderer's row.
I would give Denver a real shot here if the game was being played at Mile High, but since its not and weather won't be a factor, I can't pick against the team with 0 losses. Colts winners, Broncos losers.
4) Bengals (9-3) @ Vikings (10-2)
While everybody was caught up in the whole "Cowboys collapse in December" thing, everybody forgot about the whole "Brett Favre is 40 and fell apart at this same exact time last year" thing. I smell an upset. Bengals winners, Vikings losers.
5) Dolphins (6-6) @ Jaguars (7-5)
With the Buccaneers completely out of the playoff picture, this is the true battle of Florida. This is North vs. South, and the loser is likely out of the playoff hunt.
This game would be easier to pick if it was being played in Miami. See, even though the Jaguar fans don't come out to support their team, they're still 5-1 in Jacksonville and 2-4 on the road. Ironically enough, the Dolphins share that 2-4 road mark.
6) Saints (12-0) @ Falcons (6-6)
Didn't I tell you the Redskins would find a way to lose last week?? And what did they do?? They found a way to lose. Fortunately for the Saints, they won't get that much of a scare this week.
I think last week's 34-7 loss to the Eagles was more of an indictment of how far the Falcons have fallen than how good Philly is. Without Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and any resemblance of a secondary, Atlanta doesn't stand a chance. Saints winners, Falcons losers.
7) Cardinals (8-4) @ 49ers (5-7)
The 49ers are done. I'm done picking them and letting them burn me. More importantly, I'm done picking against the Cardinals and letting them burn me. Cards winners, Niners losers.
8) Packers (8-4) @ Bears (5-7)
The Packers basically just need to win 2 of their last 4 to make the playoffs. This will be one of them. Packers winners, Bears losers.
9) Panthers (5-7) @ Patriots (7-5)
Okay, well there goes the "Pats never lose back to back games" theory. Is there a "Pats never loses back to back to back games" theory we can fall back on?? Probably not, but its still hard to see them losing 3 straight, especially when the third game is at home and against Matt Moore and the Panthers. Tom Brady's new injury will be a non-factor and Randy Moss and the other Pats getting sent home the other day will be the same. Patriots winners, Panthers losers.
10) Seahawks (5-7) @ Texans (5-7)
Remember when the Texans were 5-3?? Seems so long ago, right?? Well it does to me.
Whatever, if the Texans wanna make it to their annual 8-8 record they had better win this game. They will. Texans winners, Seahawks losers.
11) Redskins (3-9) @ Raiders (4-8)
I'm shocked so many people are picking the Raiders to win this game. In back to back to back weeks the Redskins have nearly taken out the Cowboys, Eagles, and Saints, losing by a combined 7 points. The week before those 3, they actually took out the Broncos. You're telling me they can't break through against the Raiders?? C'mon son! Redskins winners, Raiders losers.
12) Bills (4-8) @ Chiefs (3-9)
A home game against another bad team is usually the perfect time to talk about Arrowhead Stadium and its intimidation factor. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they're facing a blackout for the first time since December 16th, 1990. That's right, KC has sold out 155 consecutive times, and now that streak is in danger. (Update: KC sells out, avoids a blackout.)
It shouldn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but I think it will somehow, someway effect them and give the Bills a shot at a road win. Bills winners, Chiefs losers.
13) Lions (2-10) @ Ravens (6-6)
After thinking he'd start Thanksgiving day against the Packers, Dante Culpepper will actually get the nod this week. Hopefully he can have a good game so he can help himself find a team next year, but the Ravens shouldn't have much trouble putting the Lions away at home. With the Steelers all but eliminated from the playoffs, I think Baltimore should smell the opportunity, with or without Ed Reed. Ravens winners, Lions losers.
14) Rams (1-11) @ Titans (5-7)
Vince Young is be banged up, but whether its he or Kerry Collins under center, the Rams still can't win. Titans winners, Rams losers.
15) Jets (6-6) @ Buccaneers (1-11)
Mark Sanchez is out so Kellen Clemens will make the start, but the Buccaneers couldn't even stop Matt Moore last week in Carolina. Jets winners, Bucs losers.
Thursday Game
Steelers (6-7) @ Browns (2-11)
I'm not gonna front, I didn't bother picking this game beforehand. I assumed the Steelers would win. They didn't, and I'll take that L.
The Steelers are now done and the NFL will crown a new championship this February. I don't know why, but they just aren't the same team without Troy Polamalu. With Troy they're 4-1, without him they're 2-6. The Madden curse went extra deep this year. Browns won, Steelers lost.
This Week: 13-3 (.813)
Overall Record: 134-73 (.647)
Last Week: 8-8 (.500)
