December 25, 2009

NFL Winners & Losers: Week 16

1) Cowboys (9-5) @ Redskins (4-10)
What a win last week for the Cowboys, right?? I'm tempted to just stop writing now and pick the Redskins and try to double up on the patented reverse jinx.

Anyway, you wanna know how Dallas can make that huge win last Saturday irrelevant?? By coming out flat Sunday and losing this game.

Now I know what you're thinking, "Did you see Washington Monday night against the Giants?? They're done!" If only it was that simple my friends. Take my word for it, it wasn't too long ago that the Giants looked dead coming off a 26-6 spanking by the Broncos, and manage to put it all together to beat a flat Cowboys team the very next week. The Redskins aren't dead yet, not with the Cowboys coming to town.

Here's what I'm banking on: 1) Dallas is the better team. They played like a different group against the New Orleans, a group with heart, and hopefully that can carry over. 2) Washington is 0-6 in night games under Jim Zorn. Cowboys winners, Redskins losers.

(Side note: I've heard so much this past week about the lack of interceptions Romo has thrown this season, so look for him to throw at least 1 Sunday.)

2) Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)
Everybody is talking about how the Ravens have righted the ship and how much better they are now than when they got whipped 27-14 to Green Bay a few weeks back. Uhh, right. They were .500 until they got the Lions and Bears at home. Now they're 8-6. Wow.

I'm not saying the Ravens suck, I'm just saying lets wait a minute before we lock them into a playoff spot.

On the other side, I think the Steelers are ready to make some noise and finally "unleash some hell here in December" as Mike Tomlin so eloquently promised at the top of the month. Big Ben won't throw for 500 yards again (and he probably won't need to), but if the Ravens could barely beat Dennis Dixon in Week 12, they won't beat Ben in Week 16. Steelers winners, Ravens losers.

(Side note: Why were people saying Mike Tomlin going for the onside kick late in the 1st was a bad?? It made perfect sense to me. If you kick the ball off regular the Packers go 80 yards and score on you and leave you no time on the clock. If you onside kick there you either A) get the ball back, or B) give the Packers a short field so if they do score (as they had been doing all night), you have some time left to answer. Heads up move. Smart move.)

3) Texans (7-7) @ Dolphins (7-7)
There are so many 7-7 teams in the AFC 2 were bound to face off. The winner lives to fight another week, the loser is toast.

As high powered as the Texans offense is, the barely came away with a win last week in St. Louis. Maybe they forgot they were technically still alive in the playoff hunt?? Well either way, if they play like that again they won't have to forget because them being eliminated will be a reality. I'll take the Dolphins at home. Dolphins winners, Texans losers.

(Side note: If these past 2 games go off as I've picked, that'd set up a great 8-7 battle for a playoff spot between the Steelers and Dolphins in Week 17. Fingers crossed!)

4) Chargers (11-3) @ Titans (7-7)
Coming into this game, I was seriously considering taking the Titans. I figured the Chargers had nothing to play for and the Titans did. Here's a few things I realized:

1) As it turns out, the Chargers don't have the #2 seed locked up like I thought after beating the Bengals. They need this win to do so.

2) Keith Bullock is out for the season. He left the game last week right around the time the Dolphins started to make a run. That's a bad sign for the Titans' defense.

3) Somehow the Chargers are 3.5 point underdogs in this game. I'm sure the Bolts won't take kindly to being labeled underdogs to a 7-7 team, especially after winning 9 straight. What the Titans have done is nice, but again, Phil Rivers has NEVER lost a game played in the month of December.

Chargers winners, Titans losers.

5) Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles (10-4)
There are plenty player/team reunions this weekend (Larry Johnson and Kansas City, Fred Taylor and Jacksonville, Kurt Warner and St. Louis, etc.), but possibly none bigger than Brian Dawkins' return to Philly. I don't like the Broncos, but nobody knows the Eagles' defense like Dawkins does. For that reason, I give them a chance in this game (a slim chance, but yet and still, a chance). At the end of the day the Eagles have too much offense for a team who couldn't stop JaMarcus Russell from scoring a game winning TD. Eagles winners, Broncos losers.

6) Panthers (6-8) @ Giants (8-6)
What a difference having a competent QB makes. Matt Moore has led the Panthers to 2 wins out of 3 games since Jake Delhomme went out. Moore has thrown just 1 INT in his 3 games, compared to Delhomme's 18 in 11. Steve Smith has flourished as well with Moore under center. Smith has 14 catches, 318 yards, and 2 TDs over the past 3 games, he had 46, 604, and 4 in the first 11.

On the other hand, the Giants appear to be playing better coming off that 45-12 beat down of the Redskins Monday, but who really knows?? I think this game is actually about even and could go either way.

I'll give the edge to New York though because they're still in the playoff hunt and this game means so much more to them as they fight to stay alive. Giants winners, Panthers losers.

7) Jets (7-7) @ Colts (14-0)
This game is SO hard to pick. If it was Week 9 instead of Week 16, you'd be out of your mind to not pick the Colts, but with everything wrapped up, you really don't know how much the Colts' stars are going to play. Will the Jets do what ESPN's Football Today host Jeremy Green suggested and take an early 15 yard late hit penalty on Peyton Manning to send a message to Jim Caldwell to get him out of the game?? It'll be interesting to see, but I'll stay safe and take the Indy. Colts winners, Jets losers.

8) Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots (9-5)
There's nothing really to talk about here. The Jags aren't going to win. That's it. The Pats aren't that dominant, but the Jags just suck. Patriots winners, Jaguars losers.

9) Seahawks (5-9) @ Packers (9-5)
The Packers probably should have won last week, but they'll make up for it Sunday against the Seahawks who have officially given up on the season. Packers winners, Seahawks losers.

10) Bills (5-9) @ Falcons (7-7)
Ryan Fitzpatrick is gonna be a game time decision, and Trent Edwards has already been ruled out. Do you know what that means?? You guess it, Brian Broham time! Falcons winners, Bills losers.

11) Buccaneers (2-12) @ Saints (13-1)
The 1999 Bronces and 2005 Colts both won their first 13 games and lost their 14th. The Saints became the 3rd team to join that list. Here's where the comparisons stop: those other 2 teams also lost their 15th game of the season, the Saints won't. Saints winners, Bucs losers.

12) Vikings (11-3) @ Bears (5-9)
Here's exactly what the Vikings need to quiet all the Favre/Childress talk, a chance to play Jay Cutler and the super dead Bears. Then again, the Panthers were dead when they played last week. Oh well, whatever. Expect the Vikes to do a lot of running with Adrian Peterson in this game because cold weather isn't Favre's best friend. Vikings winners, Bears loser.

(Side note: Its a shame ESPN can't flex games like NBC Sunday nights because instead of this being a Favre vs. Cutler shoot out, as thought when the schedule was made, it'll be the "when will Lovie Smith get fired?" game. Sad.)

13) Chiefs (3-11) @ Bengals (9-5)
Here's where the Bengals get that win for Chris Henry. Bengals winners, Chiefs losers.

14) Rams (1-13) @ Cardinals (9-5)
The Cards know they have the division wrapped up and it showed last week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams steal a victory...but I'm not brave enough to take them. Cardinals winners, Rams losers.

15) Lions (2-12) @ 49ers (6-8)
Bad game,I'm not even gonna analyze it. 49ers winners, Lions losers.

16) Raiders (5-9) @ Browns (3-11)
There's been a few games this year where 2 terrible teams teamed up to make a decent game. The Raiders have yet to be involved in that and they won't here. Expect an ugly, pathetic low scoring game. Who will throw more picks out of Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye will be more compelling. Raiders winners, Browns losers.

This Week: 10-6 (.625)
Overall Record: 152-87 (.636)
Last Week: 8-8 (.500)