EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Boston Celtics vs. (2) Miami Heat
Thoughts: This is obviously the most intriguing series of the semifinals, and possibly the playoffs overall. The big bad Boston Celtics against the big hated Miami Heat. This should be awesome!
After the Celtics become the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, everyone thinks they’re back, but I’m not convinced. Coming into the playoffs, the Knicks were the one team I wouldn’t have wanted my team to face. Why? Because of Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Chauncey “Mr. Big Shot” Billups. Well what happened in round 1? Carmelo was the only one of the trio to play all 4 games healthy. After game 1, Amare was playing at less than 50% for the rest of the series, and Billups didn’t even finish the first game. That left the Celtics playing against Melo, about a quarter of Amare, and a bunch of guys who’d ride the bench in the D-League. I’m supposed to believe the Celtics are back because they swept that team? I tend to believe the Celtics are more of the team we saw in games 1 and 2 than the team we saw in games 3 and 4.
As far as the Heat go, they’re playing some of their best basketball, but to succeed in the semis, they’re going to have to do 2 things: 1) get over their notoriously slow, unenergetic starts, and 2) get Dwyane Wade’s A-game. There’s no easy way to put it, D-Wade has been dreadful this season against Boston. In the 4 games this season, he’s averaging 12.8 points per game on 28% shooting, has more turnovers (21) than made shots (16), and a combined +/- of -28. That’s obviously not gonna cut it, and if LeBron wanted to go it alone, he would’ve stayed in Cleveland. Wade has to show up.
X-Factor: Again, I’m going to have to go with Shaquille O’Neal. Thanks to injuries on the Knicks, the Celtics were able to get by without him, but unless LeBron is going to be playing with a quarter of Wade and no Chris Bosh after game 1, they’re gonna need Shaq. Plus, Joel Anthony and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are no Ronny Turiaf and Jared Jeffries.
Prediction: Heat wins in 6. Miami’s 1-3 mark against Boston is deceiving because 2 of the games were played within their rough 9-8 start. I prefer to judge of the more recent 2 games, a 3-point win by Boston at home and a 23-point win by Miami at home.
(5) Atlanta Hawks vs. (1) Chicago Bulls
Thoughts: The Hawks don’t belong here. There is no way on God’s green Earth that they are going to beat the Bulls in a 7 game series, and I expect it to look eerily similar to the Hawks-Magic series from last year’s playoffs.
The Bulls, one of the luckier teams in recent years, were served up another gift in Kirk Hinrich (a former Bull himself) hurting his hamstring in the final game of the Orlando series. Chicago may be without Carlos Boozer for a game due to turf toe, but they most likely won’t need him. The only hope the Hawks have of winning is for Zaza Pachulia to head butt Derrick Rose and get him to throw a punch. That’s it.
X-Factor: Jamal Crawford. The only thing that stopped the Pacers from making round 1 a real series was their inability to close games. People get on the Heat, but I’ve never seen anything like what the Pacers would do in the last 3-4 minutes of games. Jamal Crawford is capable of closing a game all by himself, so if they Hawks can keep it close (which they won’t), Crawford could help them dethroned the
Prediction: Bulls win in 5. The playoffs won’t start for Chicago until the conference finals, so I expect them to play as sloppily as they did against Indiana in round 1 and drop a game in Atlanta.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (2) Los Angeles Lakers
Thoughts: Between the 2, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki have played in a total of 25 NBA playoffs and 60 NBA playoff series, how have they never faced each other in the playoffs??? I mean, it’s not like they’ve played for a bunch of different teams over those years, they’ve been on the same squad in the same conference and this is their first time meeting. Fucking weird.
Anyway, much like the Hawks, the Mavericks aren’t supposed to be here, but a funny thing happened on the way to the Trail Blazers upsetting them like everyone said: they won 4 games. And you know what? I actually give them a shot in this series. There’s something different about this Mavs team than Mavs teams in the past. The old Mavs would’ve folded after Brandon Roy stole game 4 and evened the series, but the new Mavs fought back and closed things out in 6. That’s quite impressive in my book, especially for a team who was supposed to lose.
Speaking of funny things, a funny thing happened after the Lakers loss game 1 of the New Orleans series and everyone thought they were finished: they won 4 of the next 5 games. I don’t know how far these old ass Lakers can go, but as long as Kobe and Bynum don’t break down, and I don’t see why they couldn’t make it back to the Finals.
X-Factor: Rodrigue Beaubois. Injuries kept him out the Mavs’ first round series, but with the old point guard match up of Jason Kidd vs. Derek Fisher likely being a wash, Beaubois speed and quickness could be huge.
Prediction: Lakers win in 6. The Mavs will put up a hellified fight, but the Lakers should ultimately prevail.
(8) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder
Thoughts: Remember when we all thought the Grizzlies were in trouble because they essentially called out the Spurs by tanking the last couple games of the season? Shit were we wrong...as hell! Not only did the Grizz put out the #1 seeded team in the West Coast, but they just put everybody in their conference on notice. Now of course they were aided by Manu Ginobili being injured, but you gotta reminded, one of their best players, Rudy Gay, isn't even playing. That's quite impressive. Oh, and did I mention the fact that they've beaten the Thunder 3 out the 4 times they played this season? Shit just got real.
Out of all the teams in the playoffs this year, I must say, the Thunder have played the best so far. I still have no idea how Kevin Durant (the leading scorer in the league) got zero MVP consideration (Oh yeah, because it was awarded to Derrick Rose back in February). This whole "this is my team/I'm the man" thing going on between Durant and Russell Westbrook is a concern, but then again, did that ever hurt Shaq and Kobe? If arm fatigue from hoisting Larry O'Brien trophies is your idea of hurt, I'm sure KD and Westbrook wouldn't mind (though I'm sure Seattle would).
X-Factor: Tony Allen. Can Tony Allen do to Durant what Ron Artest was able to do to him in the playoffs last season? That's a major concern for me, because OKC goes as he goes.
Co-X-Factor: Kendrink Perkins. Though Memphis did indeed beat OKC in 3 of their 4 outings, Kendrink Perkins played in 0 of them. With all the size Memphis has, it's time for him to show why OKC dumped Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic on Boston for him, because I'm sure it wasn't because they owed Miami a favor.
Prediction: Thunder wins in 7. This should be a fun ride, but at the end of the day, I expect the Thunder to prevail.
Related:
2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 1
