Then moving up to the 2 meeting of the 2010-11 season, both clubs have gone through major changes since their last meeting on December 20th. For Dallas: Caron Butler was healthy and starting, and Peja Stojakovic and Corey Brewer weren't on the roster. For Miami: Udonis Haslem missed both games, Mike Miller only played in one for 4 minutes (it was his first game back from thumb surgery), Zydrunas Ilgauskas was starting, Carlos Arroyo was still on the roster (and starting point guard), and Mike Bibby wasn't. So yeah, these Finals will be like nothing we've ever seen in the past.
Now, with that being said, being bored as fuck over the past few basketball-less days drove me to re-watch both of Heat-Mavs game for this season. Despite the huge difference in both teams now, there were some interesting tidbits I learned that will affect these Finals. Here are a few:
- LeBron shouldn't guard Dirk, Chris Bosh should. After LeBron shut down Derrick Rose, everybody has been talking about him possibly guarding Dirk, but after watching the games, it's clear that Bosh would be the best option. Of course Haslem (who did a great job on Dirk in the '06 Finals) wasn't there, but Dirk dogged everybody else that guarded him except Bosh. As the Heat have been saying, Dirk is gonna make shots regardless of who's guarding him, but I don't see the logic of taking your best perimeter defender and making him guard a 7-footer who can back him down and shoot over him, much like he constantly did when Joel Anthony was on him. Plus, if LeBron is guarding the low post, that means he’s not out in transition on fast break opportunities and I doubt Miami wants that. Bosh and Haslem should split duties guarding Dirk.
- Bosh is a match up problem for Dallas. A common theme in both games against Dallas was Bosh shooting wide open jumpers, especially early on. Dirk isn't the best defender, so while Bosh guarded him a lot, he guarded Zydrunas Ilgauskas a lot. Tyson Chandler spent the most time on Bosh, but he was reluctant to come out to the wing, thus Bosh shooting open jumpers. As he showed in the East Finals, Bosh is more than capable of hitting open jumpers, so the Mavs definitely need to look into better options defending him.
- Jason Kidd can't guard Wade. I know I'm not breaking any news here, but at age 38, Kidd just didn't seem to have the quickness to stay in front of Wade. I know Kidd did a nice job on Kobe in round 2, but Kobe is old, Wade isn't. Dallas should stay clear of sticking Kidd on Wade.
- DeShawn Stevenson did a great job defending Wade. On the other hand, Stevenson was able to stay in front of Wade and not let him drive to the basket for easy scored. If I'm Dallas, I play him big minute just for that fact alone.
- Mario Chalmers can't guard J.J. Barea. Being that they're both back-up point guards, it'd make sense to have Chalmers guard Barea, but in the 2 game earlier this season, Barea constantly beat him off the dribble and got lay-up. I'm assuming Miami noticed this too since they said they're gonna approach guarding him like they approached guarding Derrick Rose. I don't think that means they'll stick LeBron on him, but Wade did a great job of containing him, so it’ll probably be his job.
- Caron Butler will be missed. When your 2nd best player is out for the season, it’s obvious he’ll be missed, but he really did a number on the Heat in those 2 games this season. He held LeBron to 5 of 19 shooting in the first game, and 6 of 17 shooting in the second (including 0 points in the first half) while leading the team in scoring with 23 points. He could be the difference in this series.
Dallas' Key To Victory: Closing down the lane. Despite LeBron and Wade's marvelous shooting in the last 3:14 of the East Finals, you still rather have them shooting jumpers than driving to the hoop and getting your big men in foul trouble. If guys like Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood can close off the lane, it could go a long way in getting them all rings.
Miami's Key To Victory: Not getting killed from the 3-point line. When they're not getting the ball to Dirk and letting him work his magic, the Mavs want to swing the ball out on the perimeter and get open shots for their shooters like Peja Stojakovic and Jason Terry. Limit the wide open opportunities and Miami should be in good shape.
Dallas' X-Factor: Shawn Marion. Initially, I was gonna go with J.J. Barea because Mario Chalmers can't guard him (or at least he couldn't in either Heat-Mavs game from earlier this season), but I have to go with Marion because with Caron Butler out, he'll be asked to continue filling that void (which now includes guarding LeBron James). He had 2 great games off the bench for Dallas against Miami this season (14 and 5 in the first, 7 and 13 in the second), so now that he's getting more minutes, it’ll be interesting to see if he can make a true impact like he did against Oklahoma City. If he does, Miami better look out.
Miami's X-Factor: Mike Miller. Miller finally rediscovered his shot in the Eastern Conference Finals, and that was big, but his defense and rebounding will also be key for Miami. It went unnoticed, but in Udonis Haslem's breakout Game 2 against the Bulls, Miller actually had more rebounds (7) than Haslem (5). Doing the small things, as well as hitting the big shots, will be essential for Miami.
Prediction: So this is it, Dirk vs. LeBron, "Good" vs. "Evil," Germany vs. America, American Airlines Center vs. American Airlines Aren (you get the picture). Who will prevail? I’m going with Miami in 6. Though I am a Heat fan, I wouldn’t mind seeing Dirk, Kidd, and Terry finally get their rings, but I’m not as sold about them being able to beat the April-May Heat like they did the November-December Heat. I might’ve felt differently if Caron Butler was healthy, but beating this Heat team 4 times seems improbable. And that’s only magnified by Miami having home court advantage because not only are they undefeated at home this postseason, but since 1999 only 2 teams with home court have lost in the 2-3-2 format: the ’04 Lakers and the ’06 Mavs. (Then again, the Mavs were the younger, seemingly better team in the ’06 Finals and the Heat were the older team that shocked everybody by making it that far, and we all know how that turned out. Just putting it out there.)
