Much like the Celtics’ regular season record versus the Heat, the Bulls’ is pretty sketchy as well. Unlike the Celtics, all of the Bulls’ wins over the Heat came in 2011, which is awesome, but the final scores don’t properly tell the story. In their first meeting on January 15th, LeBron James logged a grand total of 0 minutes, as he sprained his ankle at the end of a game against the Clippers 3 days earlier. (Now to be fair, Joakim Noah also missed this game, but I think we can all agree LeBron is a just tad bit better than him.) After helping the Heat hold a 53-48 lead at halftime, Chris Bosh went on to sprain his ankle in the 3rd quarter and did not return. Dwyane Wade also banged his left knee and jammed both wrists, but managed to finish the game. The Bulls won 99-96.
In their second meeting on February 24th, everyone played, but Chris Bosh oddly went 1-18 from the field (that’s a whopping 6%) and scored just 7 points. Now, as we’ve all saw in the Celtics series, Bosh is more than capable of pulling a disappearing act (see games 1 and 3), but to take 18 shots and only hit 1? That’s all-time bad, and I wouldn’t bank on that ever happening again. The Bulls won 93-89.
The last meeting between these 2 on March 6th was probably the most legit barometer we can use. Yeah, it was in the midst of the Heat’s season long 5-game losing streak, but all the guys were there, and no one had a historically bad outing (a la Bosh’s 1-18). Despite the Heat being in control for majority of the game, the Bulls ultimately won 87-86 after LeBron missed a game winner.
The bottom line is this: in the Eastern Conference Finals, the regular season doesn’t mean shit. What does mean something is how these teams are playing today. The Heat is an impressive 8-2 so far in the playoffs, and is playing their best basketball of the season. After sleep walking through the first round, and parts the second, the Bulls proved Thursday night they’re back and ready to roll. This is gonna be good!
Miami’s Key To Victory: Making Derrick Rose a jump shooter. Rose has no doubt improved his jumper this season, but he’s still a dreadful 3-point shooter. Good thing for the Heat he hasn’t realized it yet. In 11 playoff games, Rose has shot 71 3’s (6 per game) and only made 18 of them (25%). If the Heat can keep him around the arc and out of the lane, this series could turn into a laugher.
Chicago’s Key To Victory: Playing great team defense. Unlike Chicago, you can’t stop Miami by shutting down one guy, so all 5 guys on the floor need to be on their defensive A-games. If the Bulls are keeping the Heatles out of the paint and closing out on their 3-point shooter, this series could be over fast.
Miami’s X-Factor: Mario Chalmers. Mike Bibby will most likely continue to start, but Chalmers will finish. If he can hit his open shots and prevent Dwyane Wade and LeBron James from being forced to waste energy and fouls trying to guard Derrick Rose, it will be huge for Miami. (Side note: I can’t lie, I’m also hoping for Rose to have a Chalmers mental block stemming from the '08 National Championship game.)
Chicago’s X-Factor: Keith Bogans. Obviously, the Heat’s defensive focus will mainly be on stopping Derrick Rose, so Bogans is probably gonna be wide open a lot. In the Hawks series, Bogans shot 49% from 3, if he’s not being guarded, I can’t see why that wouldn’t continue.
Prediction: Heat wins in 6. You want to know why? One name: John Hollinger. ESPN.com’s Insider is the only person I’ve seen correctly pick the Heat to win in 5 in both the first and second round. Now he’s taking them in 6 against the Bulls, so I’m gonna do the same and hope his luck has yet to run out. If the Heat can manage to win one of these first 2 games in Chicago, we should be looking good.
