August 12, 2010

7.5 Wins For The 2010 Cowboys??

Cowboys
FootballOutsiders.com has released it's annual Football Outsiders Almanac and in it they have the Cowboys being sub-.500, winning just 7.5 games. Really??

Now before all my Cowboys fan get all Mel Gibson-mad at Aaron Schatz and crew, just know this prediction is based on a bunch of statistics, formulas, and other who-ha I don't understand. No worries, Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com got FO's Bill Barnwell to explain it, and it's only fair we give them a shot, so click here to check it out.

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Okay, checked it out enough?? Aight, let's proceed:

Bullshit! Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit, oh yeah, and then there was some bullshit.

The #1 reason the Cowboys are going to win 7.5 games is because of injuries?? Really?? Now, I'm not saying there won't be injuries, it's football, of course there will be injuries, but how do you say one team is more likely to have injuries than another?? Is there a stat or formula for that?? If so, I'd LOVE to see it. Again, I'm not saying the Cowboys won't have injuries, but for that to be FO's #1 reason the they will be under .500 is just retarded.

The #2 reason is valid (though John Clayton said the same thing last year and it didn't effective us until the playoffs) so let's move on to #3: the Giants and Redskins will be better. No really, that was Bill's third reason, the Giants and Redskins will be better. And to think that I actually thought #1 was retarded.

Let's examine this further: the Cowboys will play the G-men and 'Skin 4 times this season. In 2009 the 'Boys went 2-2 against these 2 clubs (2 losses to the Giants, 2 wins against the Redskins), and let's just say in 2010 they split the 4 games again (Cowboys split 1-1 with both). You don't think the Cowboys can string together 7 or 8 more wins out of the remaining 12 games again to make the playoffs?? I know our schedule is tough, but I do. I mean, the 'Boy just did it last year.

Okay, now let's get even crazier and say the Cowboys lose all 4 games against the vastly improved Giants and Redskins. That would mean they Cowboys would have to win at least 9 of their remaining 12 games to finish over .500, and most likely 10 of the 12 to make the playoffs. That's a bit more unrealistic, but then again, isn't expecting the Cowboys to lose all 4 of these division games unrealistic as well?? That's what FO would need to happen to help out their argument of 7.5 wins for the Cowboys.

Besides all this, and in all seriousness, how much better are the Redskins going to be than they were last year?? They only won 4 games in 2009, so technically if they win 5 they're better, right?? Right. All I'm saying is let's wait and see with the Redskins. They have 3 old running backs and the #2 receiver on their depth chart is the 38 year-old Joey Galloway.

(Side note: Division records aren't everything anyway. If I'm not mistaken, the 2009 Jets went 2-4 in the AFC East and still finished over .500 and still made the playoffs. I'm just saying.)

The last part I wanted to talk about is at the bottom where they ask Bill what's the Cowboys' biggest weakness. Now I don't disagree that safety is our biggest weakness, but what's with saying DeSean Jackson will have a "field day against Dallas downfield at some point this year"?? Really, you mean like he did last season?? You know, when he had a "field day" stacking up 8 catches, 90 yards, and 1 touchdown...IN 3 GAMES! Yeah, we better beware of the guy who couldn't even get off when Ken Hamlin was back there.

I'm done!